Breakthroughs, discoveries, and DIY tips sent every weekday. A truly sustainable future requires solar power, but trying to consistently maximize the energy harvested by panel arrays remains one of the industry's biggest challenges. Unlike fossil fuels, solar power yields are dictated by the complex interplay of weather and atmospheric variables, as well as the sun's own activity. This means it's basically impossible to craft a universal prediction model, so localized solar forecast systems are a necessity. While machine learning technology has significantly improved today's forecast models, there is still a lot of room for improvement.

Weaknesses: - It is not really clear what types of event are available, and what is the difference between events and episodes. This goes with the point above, it would be nice to have a more in-depth description of the events, their frequency and the possibility of predicting them given the input. Is it simply a label attached to the 384 2 km inputs or is it localized within each image, for each time? It seem that the values of weather radars are very skewed towards 0s, and large values very rare. Also, I wonder if maybe there are some more domain specific loss functions to be optimized, eg taking into account spatial smoothness of signals, rarity of levels, level sets of precipitation, etc.

As global warming increases the complexity of weather patterns; the precision of weather forecasting becomes increasingly important. Our study proposes a novel preprocessing method and convolutional autoencoder model developed to improve the interpretation of synoptic weather maps. These are critical for meteorologists seeking a thorough understanding of weather conditions. This model could recognize historical synoptic weather maps that nearly match current atmospheric conditions, marking a significant step forward in modern technology in meteorological forecasting. This comprises unsupervised learning models like VQ-VQE, as well as supervised learning models like VGG16, VGG19, Xception, InceptionV3, and ResNet50 trained on the ImageNet dataset, as well as research into newer models like EfficientNet and ConvNeXt. Our findings proved that, while these models perform well in various settings, their ability to identify comparable synoptic weather maps has certain limits. Our research, motivated by the primary goal of significantly increasing meteorologists' efficiency in labor-intensive tasks, discovered that cosine similarity is the most effective metric, as determined by a combination of quantitative and qualitative assessments to accurately identify relevant historical weather patterns. This study broadens our understanding by shifting the emphasis from numerical precision to practical application, ensuring that our model is effective in theory practical, and accessible in the complex and dynamic field of meteorology.

Precipitation nowcasting plays a pivotal role in socioeconomic sectors, especially in severe convective weather warnings. Although notable progress has been achieved by approaches mining the spatiotemporal correlations with deep learning, these methods still suffer severe blurriness as the lead time increases, which hampers accurate predictions for extreme precipitation. To alleviate blurriness, researchers explore generative methods conditioned on blurry predictions. However, the pairs of blurry predictions and corresponding ground truth need to be generated in advance, making the training pipeline cumbersome and limiting the generality of generative models within blur modes that appear in training data. By rethinking the blurriness in precipitation nowcasting as a blur kernel acting on predictions, we propose an unsupervised postprocessing method to eliminate the blurriness without the requirement of training with the pairs of blurry predictions and corresponding ground truth. Specifically, we utilize blurry predictions to guide the generation process of a pre-trained unconditional denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) to obtain high-fidelity predictions with eliminated blurriness. A zero-shot blur kernel estimation mechanism and an auto-scale denoise guidance strategy are introduced to adapt the unconditional DDPM to any blurriness modes varying from datasets and lead times in precipitation nowcasting. Extensive experiments are conducted on 7 precipitation radar datasets, demonstrating the generality and superiority of our method.

Subseasonal forecasting, which is pivotal for agriculture, water resource management, and early warning of disasters, faces challenges due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Recent advances in machine learning (ML) have revolutionized weather forecasting by achieving competitive predictive skills to numerical models. However, training such foundation models requires thousands of GPU days, which causes substantial carbon emissions and limits their broader applicability. Moreover, ML models tend to fool the pixel-wise error scores by producing smoothed results which lack physical consistency and meteorological meaning. To deal with the aforementioned problems, we propose a teleconnection-informed transformer. Our architecture leverages the pretrained Pangu model to achieve good initial weights and integrates a teleconnection-informed temporal module to improve predictability in an extended temporal range. Remarkably, by adjusting 1.1% of the Pangu model's parameters, our method enhances predictability on four surface and five upper-level atmospheric variables at a two-week lead time. Furthermore, the teleconnection-filtered features improve the spatial granularity of outputs significantly, indicating their potential physical consistency. Our research underscores the importance of atmospheric and oceanic teleconnections in driving future weather conditions. Besides, it presents a resource-efficient pathway for researchers to leverage existing foundation models on versatile downstream tasks.

Rain precipitation prediction is a challenging task as it depends on weather and meteorological features which vary from location to location. As a result, a prediction model that performs well at one location does not perform well at other locations due to the distribution shifts. In addition, due to global warming, the weather patterns are changing very rapidly year by year which creates the possibility of ineffectiveness of those models even at the same location as time passes. In our work, we have proposed an adaptive deep learning-based framework in order to provide a solution to the aforementioned challenges. Our method can generalize the model for the prediction of precipitation for any location where the methods without adaptation fail. Our method has shown 43.51%, 5.09%, and 38.62% improvement after adaptation using a deep neural network for predicting the precipitation of Paris, Los Angeles, and Tokyo, respectively.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful tool for optimal control that has found great success in Atari games, the game of Go, robotic control, and building optimization. RL is also very brittle; agents often overfit to their training environment and fail to generalize to new settings. Unsupervised environment design (UED) has been proposed as a solution to this problem, in which the agent trains in environments that have been specially selected to help it learn. Previous UED algorithms focus on trying to train an RL agent that generalizes across a large distribution of environments. This is not necessarily desirable when we wish to prioritize performance in one environment over others. In this work, we will be examining the setting of robust RL building control, where we wish to train an RL agent that prioritizes performing well in normal weather while still being robust to extreme weather conditions. We demonstrate a novel UED algorithm, ActivePLR, that uses uncertainty-aware neural network architectures to generate new training environments at the limit of the RL agent's ability while being able to prioritize performance in a desired base environment. We show that ActivePLR is able to outperform state-of-the-art UED algorithms in minimizing energy usage while maximizing occupant comfort in the setting of building control.

A machine learning-based weather prediction program developed by DeepMind researchers called "GraphCast" can predict weather variables over the span of 10 days, in under one minute. In a report, scientists highlight that GraphCast has outperformed traditional weather pattern prediction technologies at a 90% verification rate. The AI-powered weather prediction program works by taking in "the two most recent states of Earth's weather," which includes the variables from the time of the test and six hours prior. Using that data, GraphCast can predict what the state of the weather will be in six hours. In practice, AI has already showcased its applicability in the real world.

Deep reinforcement learning has considerable potential to improve irrigation scheduling in many cropping systems by applying adaptive amounts of water based on various measurements over time. The goal is to discover an intelligent decision rule that processes information available to growers and prescribes sensible irrigation amounts for the time steps considered. Due to the technical novelty, however, the research on the technique remains sparse and impractical. To accelerate the progress, the paper proposes a principled framework and actionable procedure that allow researchers to formulate their own optimisation problems and implement solution algorithms based on deep reinforcement learning. The effectiveness of the framework was demonstrated using a case study of irrigated wheat grown in a productive region of Australia where profits were maximised. Specifically, the decision rule takes nine state variable inputs: crop phenological stage, leaf area index, extractable soil water for each of the five top layers, cumulative rainfall and cumulative irrigation. It returns a probabilistic prescription over five candidate irrigation amounts (0, 10, 20, 30 and 40 mm) every day. The production system was simulated at Goondiwindi using the APSIM-Wheat crop model. After training in the learning environment using 1981-2010 weather data, the learned decision rule was tested individually for each year of 2011-2020. The results were compared against the benchmark profits obtained by a conventional rule common in the region. The discovered decision rule prescribed daily irrigation amounts that uniformly improved on the conventional rule for all the testing years, and the largest improvement reached 17% in 2018. The framework is general and applicable to a wide range of cropping systems with realistic optimisation problems.

Wind energy resource assessment typically requires numerical models, but such models are too computationally intensive to consider multi-year timescales. Increasingly, unsupervised machine learning techniques are used to identify a small number of representative weather patterns to simulate long-term behaviour. Here we develop a novel wind energy workflow that for the first time combines weather patterns derived from unsupervised clustering techniques with numerical weather prediction models (here WRF) to obtain efficient and accurate long-term predictions of power and downstream wakes from an entire wind farm. We use ERA5 reanalysis data clustering not only on low altitude pressure but also, for the first time, on the more relevant variable of wind velocity. We also compare the use of large-scale and local-scale domains for clustering. A WRF simulation is run at each of the cluster centres and the results are aggregated using a novel post-processing technique. By applying our workflow to two different regions, we show that our long-term predictions agree with those from a year of WRF simulations but require less than 2% of the computational time. The most accurate results are obtained when clustering on wind velocity. Moreover, clustering over the Europe-wide domain is sufficient for predicting wind farm power output, but downstream wake predictions benefit from the use of smaller domains. Finally, we show that these downstream wakes can affect the local weather patterns. Our approach facilitates multi-year predictions of power output and downstream farm wakes, by providing a fast, accurate and flexible methodology that is applicable to any global region. Moreover, these accurate long-term predictions of downstream wakes provide the first tool to help mitigate the effects of wind energy loss downstream of wind farms, since they can be used to determine optimum wind farm locations.